FTR: Class 8 Truck Production Outpacing Expectations

North American Class 8 truck production is exceeding expectations, according to Dan Moyer, a senior analyst at FTR Transportation Intelligence. The forecast indicates that there will be approximately 308,200 shipments in 2025, a slight decline of 6.6% from the previous year, but an encouraging increase of nearly 24% compared to earlier predictions. Moyer noted that production levels have remained high despite potential downturns, driven by manufacturers' reluctance to reduce workforce numbers in anticipation of a recovery in the freight market and upcoming EPA emissions regulations. FTR has also adjusted its production forecast upward for the next few years, predicting 280,000 trucks in 2025 and 352,000 in 2026. Inventories have risen dramatically, with numbers hitting a record 86,100 in July, showing a 48% year-over-year increase. Current backlogs at manufacturers are decreasing, allowing lead times to shorten. With recent trends showing a decrease in month-over-month backlogs, satisfaction in build rates is evident. However, as the traditional order season approaches, manufacturers’ confidence may be put to the test, particularly as historical trends suggest a more robust order influx than what was recently observed. As an expert in the field of transportation, it is essential to recognize the interplay between market forces and regulatory changes. The current production levels not only reflect the industry's response to economic signals but also a strategic approach to navigate regulatory environments. Investing in production now, while anticipating regulatory shifts, can position manufacturers favorably for future demands, particularly those that prioritize sustainability practices. However, maintaining workforce stability while facing economic fluctuations poses unique challenges that require careful management of resources and planning.