Trailer Demand Prospects Dim Further as FTR Cuts Forecast

U.S. trailer manufacturers are facing declining demand, as highlighted by Dan Moyer of FTR Transportation Intelligence at the FTR Transportation Conference 2024. The organization has reduced its production forecast for 2024 from 248,800 to 233,602 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%. Key indicators such as trailer orders, cancellations, backlogs, and lead times have shown negative trends, primarily impacted by a weak for-hire freight market. For the May to July period, trailer orders dropped below 6,000 monthly for the first time since tracking began, with overall trailer orders nearing a four-year low. Year-on-year comparisons reveal a 20% reduction in trailer orders thus far in 2024, with severe declines in specific segments like dry vans and flatbeds, which fell by 52% and 70% respectively. Cancellations exceeded 30% in the same period, although overall cancellations are down 18% compared to last year. Further insights indicate that trailer backlogs decreased 45% year-on-year, while lead times reduced to below 5.5 months. This situation has led to increased inventory levels for dry van and reefer trailer dealers, creating potential operational challenges in coming quarters, as dry van freight constitutes a significant share of total loads. Looking forward, the production forecast for 2025 has also been cut, while there is cautious optimism for possible rebounds in production for 2026, 2027, and 2028. However, risks remain, particularly if the freight market does not stabilize. Expert opinion suggests that such downturns can have cascading effects throughout the supply chain. Trailer manufacturers may need to innovate and adapt their offerings to meet evolving freight industry demands and consumer preferences. Addressing excess inventory while maintaining production capabilities will be critical. Additionally, fostering collaboration with logistics firms could enhance demand forecasting and reduce pressure on trailer production capacity in future downturns.