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Global Oil Demand Growth to Slow For Rest of 2025, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected a slowdown in global oil demand growth for the remainder of 2025 following a strong first quarter. Demand saw an increase of 990,000 barrels per day from January to March, but this rate is expected to drop to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year, attributed to economic challenges and weak oil delivery data from key emerging markets like China and India. The IEA has also downgraded its forecasts for U.S. shale oil production in light of declining crude prices.
The combination of reduced demand and increased supply is anticipated to lead to a global surplus of oil, with inventories potentially rising by as much as 2 million barrels a day by early 2026. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to increase output significantly in the near term, prompting fears of even larger inventory builds if these plans are fully executed. The situation is indicative of a broader trend where trade uncertainty impacts economic activity, thereby influencing oil consumption patterns negatively.
In the context of transportation, this slowdown in oil demand growth could have significant implications. As electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative means of transport become more prevalent, the oil market may face ongoing challenges. This transition to cleaner energy sources is likely to accelerate, further diminishing reliance on fossil fuels. For transportation professionals and policymakers, these shifts call for strategic planning to accommodate evolving energy landscapes and investment in infrastructure that supports sustainable transportation solutions.
The combination of reduced demand and increased supply is anticipated to lead to a global surplus of oil, with inventories potentially rising by as much as 2 million barrels a day by early 2026. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to increase output significantly in the near term, prompting fears of even larger inventory builds if these plans are fully executed. The situation is indicative of a broader trend where trade uncertainty impacts economic activity, thereby influencing oil consumption patterns negatively.
In the context of transportation, this slowdown in oil demand growth could have significant implications. As electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative means of transport become more prevalent, the oil market may face ongoing challenges. This transition to cleaner energy sources is likely to accelerate, further diminishing reliance on fossil fuels. For transportation professionals and policymakers, these shifts call for strategic planning to accommodate evolving energy landscapes and investment in infrastructure that supports sustainable transportation solutions.