EazyinWay - Manufacturing Activity Shrank in May for Third Straight Month Manufacturing Activity Shrank in May for Third Straight Month

Manufacturing Activity Shrank in May for Third Straight Month

Published: June 3, 2025
U.S. factory activity has entered a contraction phase for three consecutive months, indicated by the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) dropping to 48.5 in May. This decline reflects increasing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, especially after a significant 7.2 point drop in the ISM's import measure to a 16-year low. The declining export figures, reaching their lowest in five years, may be the result of retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. products.

Different sectors within the manufacturing landscape have shown mixed performance, with seven industries contracting, particularly in paper products and printing. Some industries, such as plastics, rubber, and petroleum, still experienced growth. Despite this contraction, Susan Spence from ISM remains hopeful about long-term economic expansion, provided that tariff uncertainties can stabilize.

Economist Stuart Paul noted a delicate balance, where increased factory activity is countered by diminishing inventories of raw materials. This situation could lead to an uptick in orders as firms recuperate their stock. However, the chaotic and rapidly changing trade policies are significantly complicating sourcing strategies, leading to longer supplier delivery times.

The transportation equipment industry expressed concerns about decreasing demand and rising costs. Higher tariffs have notably impacted businesses across various sectors, leading to decisions to halt investments amid economic uncertainty. The persistent ambiguity surrounding tariffs is a substantial hindrance to companies' operational capabilities and their ability to hold inventory.

In expert opinion, these developments highlight the intricate interplay between international trade policies and domestic manufacturing. The current tariff situation demonstrates that stable and predictable trade practices are essential for fostering a resilient supply chain and ensuring sustained growth in the transportation sector. Without resolution, the potential for supply chain disruptions similar to those experienced during the pandemic could persist, further exacerbating pressures on manufacturing and transportation.
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