US Sees Oil Output Falling in 2026 in Blow to Trump’s Agenda

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecasted a decline in U.S. domestic crude oil production for the first time since 2021, projecting a drop from 13.42 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026. This decline is seen as a setback to former President Trump's energy policies that emphasized increased domestic drilling. The report also indicates that U.S. shale production will decrease from 11.25 million to 11.09 million barrels per day, largely due to reduced activity in the Permian Basin and fewer operational drilling rigs, which have hit a four-year low. Additionally, producers are opting to hold off on new fracking initiatives until oil prices improve, leading to a surge in the number of previously drilled but uncompleted wells.

While offshore production is expected to increase slightly, global oil demand growth is anticipated to slow down, with a forecast rise of 800,000 barrels per day this year—less than originally predicted. This slowdown, alongside an expected inventory buildup of more than 800,000 barrels daily, indicates a potential oversupply in the market.

From a transportation perspective, the declining crude oil production could lead to an increase in retail gasoline prices, as reduced supply could impact availability. Furthermore, such fluctuations in oil production and pricing necessitate strategic planning in transportation logistics, particularly for sectors reliant on fuel-efficient practices. As demand evolves alongside production changes, transportation infrastructure must adapt to ensure economic stability and support a transition towards more sustainable energy sources.