Growing electricity demand from AI and data centers, combined with rising fuel use in Asia and European gas needs, may turn an expected global liquefied natural gas supply glut into a shortage by 2030. Qatar Energy CEO Saad al-Kaabi expressed concerns that the market will experience an oversupply between 2025-2030, but a shortage thereafter. This shift is attributed mainly to increased demand from AI and data center requirements.
As energy executives gathered at LNG2026 in Doha, they outlined a bullish long-term outlook for liquefied natural gas, with some predicting that new supply will weigh on prices later this decade. The world's growing energy demands are expected to rise significantly, with Shell CEO Wael Sawan stating that the global market is adding the energy demand of Switzerland every month through 2050. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance forecasted global LNG demand doubling over the next 20 years, with the market projected to grow to 600 million tons by 2030 and 800 million tons by 2050.
Executives pointed to Asia as the main engine of future demand growth, led by China and India, driven by population growth and increasing energy requirements. India's plan to lift gas to 15% of its energy mix by 2030 is expected to boost LNG demand, while several countries in Southeast Asia are becoming net importers due to growing populations. The surging use of LNG in trucking in China and India over the past two to three years, alongside rising marine demand as ships switch from heavy fuel oil, has also contributed to the shift in demand expectations.
As new supply enters the market between 2026 and 2029, some executives expect LNG prices to soften, while others believe project delays could tighten the market. The long-term outlook for liquefied natural gas is complex, with varying predictions on how far new supply will weigh on prices later this decade. Energy demand is expected to rise significantly, driven by growing populations and increasing energy requirements in Asia and other regions.
As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, it is essential to consider the potential impact of new supply on LNG prices and demand expectations.