A new trade agreement between the US and India could significantly impact Russia's seaborne oil exports to the Indian market. According to US President Donald Trump, the deal would lead to mutual tariff reductions, with US tariffs on Indian goods falling from 50% to 18% and Indian tariffs on US goods potentially dropping to zero.
However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to publicly confirm the Indian tariff reduction. The agreement also includes commitments from India to end oil purchases from Russia while increasing purchases of US energy and goods.
Despite this, it remains unclear whether these commitments will be upheld. In recent months, Russian oil exports to India have already fallen 34% year-on-year, with some attributing this decline to EU restrictions on the purchase, import, and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude oil.
Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, up to two-thirds of India's crude oil and oil product imports came from the Persian Gulf, but in 2025, that number had reduced to 45%. As a result, it is likely that Indian importers could turn to imports from the Persian Gulf to replace any potential reductions in imports from Russia.
The impact on the Russian-India trade would be significant, particularly for the dirty tanker trade, which could see a substantial increase in demand as the mainstream fleet seeks to capitalize on this shift. While some experts believe India's commitment to reducing its Russian oil purchases is more likely than initially thought, it remains uncertain whether Russia will be able to find new buyers and maintain its market share.