Uber Freight says the freight market could be entering a more volatile phase, with tightening truckload capacity, elevated cargo theft and policy-driven disruptions. According to Uber Freight’s report Q1 freight market update: What shippers should be watching now , tender acceptance rates have fallen sharply from last year, signaling increasing pressure on truckload networks and higher transportation costs for shippers. “Even with seasonal headwinds, the market remains structurally tight,” the report said.
“First-tender acceptance is hovering around 85%, significantly lower than last year’s 92%. ” Spot truckload rates are currently more than 25% higher year over year, reflecting tightening supply and demand dynamics across trucking. “Planning cycles are shortening, and flexibility is becoming more valuable than ever,” Uber Freight said.
San Francisco-based Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER ) operates three platforms: Uber (ride-hailing), Uber Freight (logistics), and Uber Eats (food and goods delivery). Truckload capacity tightening again Uber Freight analysts said structural changes in the trucking sector are reducing available capacity even as demand begins to recover. Organic supply reductions, weak equipment sales and regulatory pressures have limited the number of carriers entering the market.
At the same time, consumer-oriented sectors such as retail and consumer packaged goods are showing stronger freight demand. “On the demand side, there is a split based on sectors. Consumer-oriented lanes, like retail and CPG, are driving volume growth, while industrial sectors remain stagnant.
However, manufacturing output and orders have shown positive signs, potentially signaling a recovery,” the report said. Industrial sectors remain relatively weak, but early signals suggest manufacturing output and orders could begin improving later this year. The combination is creating uneven freight flows that are increasing volatility across truckload networks.
For shippers, the report recommends strengthening routing guides, diversifying carrier relationships and closely monitoring market conditions to avoid excessive exposure to the spot market. “Focus on short-term (30-90-day) pricing resets on specific lanes. However, avoid chasing the lowest prices, as this could lead to carrier issues and declining routing guide performance,” Uber Freight said.
LTL networks could see spillover freight The tightening truckload environment may also push more shipments into the less-than-truckload sector. 2% year over year, reaching record levels even as demand across the sector has been relatively soft. “With these shifts, large industrial and CPG shippers are beginning to rethink their legacy LTL Strategies,” according to the report.
” If truckload capacity tightens further, the report suggests that LTL carriers could experience increased freight volumes as shippers move smaller shipments or consolidate freight differently. Some large shippers are already reconsidering their LTL strategies by reducing premium shipments and shifting toward consolidated or deferred service options to control costs. Cargo theft and fraud remain elevated Security risks remain one of the freight industry’s most persistent operational challenges, Uber Freight said.
Cargo theft incidents across North America increased 18% in 2025, according to the report, underscoring ongoing vulnerabilities across trucking and logistics networks. Uber Freight said its own network has reduced fraud incidents by about 20% through tighter carrier onboarding procedures and increased monitoring of suspicious activity. The report also points to potential regulatory responses aimed at combating organized theft, including legislation such as the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act and the Household Goods Shipping Consumer Protection Act.
Industry groups have also expanded cooperation with security databases such as CargoNet to identify fraud patterns and track stolen shipments. Cross-border freight faces growing uncertainty Policy changes and geopolitical tensions are also contributing to increased volatility in international logistics. Uber Freight analysts said cross-border networks — particularly trade flows involving Mexico, Canada and major ocean shipping corridors — are experiencing sudden disruptions rather than gradual global shifts.
“Tariff moves, new regulations, carrier exits, and severe weather are all factors that can impact cross-border operations,” the report said. Ocean shipping reliability has slipped slightly to about 63% schedule reliability, with vessel delays averaging just over five days. The legal battle surrounding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has also added uncertainty to global trade planning.
While a recent court ruling lowered effective tariff rates after determining that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in some cases, Uber Freight analysts said any increase in global tariff levels could quickly raise landed costs and disrupt established supply chains. “In Mexico and Canada, shippers are increasing mini-bids, executing routing guide resets, and focusing on benchmarking and early Q3 conversations as they respond to new regulations, changing rates, and freight volumes,” Uber Freight said. Freight market entering a more complex phase Rather than a single market-wide shift, Uber Freight said supply chain disruptions are increasingly appearing as lane-level shocks — sudden rate spikes, corridor closures or localized capacity shortages.
To prepare, the report recommends that shippers develop corridor-specific contingency plans, diversify carrier networks and improve shipment visibility. The goal is to ensure freight continues moving even when specific trade lanes or transportation modes face sudden disruptions. “As policy changes and market volatility accelerate, shippers that plan proactively and build flexible networks will be better positioned to manage risk,” the report said.
