The Energy Research & Social Science paper has provided a framework for understanding the nuclear energy paradox.
This phenomenon is characterized by a recurring gap between the nuclear future that was imagined and the nuclear fleet that was actually built.
The authors argue that energy futures are shaped by what they call nuclear imaginaries, which are shared stories about what a technology is expected to become.
In nuclear power, one long-running story has been the plutonium economy, where fast breeder reactors would make nuclear fuel almost unlimited and allow nuclear power to dominate the long-term energy system.
However, this story has not been remotely proven at scale, and newer stories like the SMR economy have also influenced expectations without being proven.
The paper's strongest contribution is the triangulation of repeated projection failure, inherited model structures, and the policy use of scenario outputs.
This highlights the importance of considering the assumptions underlying energy models and scenario outputs, as these can become much less visible than the headline result.
The study emphasizes that models do not begin with a blank page, but rather are built on technology menus, cost assumptions, constraints, build limits, fuel assumptions, learning rates, regional structures, and views about how systems change.
The study highlights the importance of considering the gap between projected and actual nuclear expansion.
