Carriers are entering 2026 with cautious optimism, expecting a more favorable pricing environment. This confidence comes despite the recent volatility of the freight market. The majority of surveyed carriers anticipate both contract and spot rates to increase in 2026, with many expecting gains in the mid-single digits or higher. This pricing outlook is influenced by the carriers' measured approach to capacity expansion, which includes adding drivers but avoiding overcorrection.
Carriers are taking a cautious approach to capacity expansion, with about half of surveyed carriers planning to add drivers. However, this measured approach reflects the lessons learned from the pandemic-era demand surge, where carriers overcorrected and faced significant challenges in maintaining supply chain stability. By being more mindful of their capacity expansion plans, carriers aim to avoid similar pitfalls in 2026.
Shippers, on the other hand, have a more conservative outlook on pricing. A substantial portion expect flat or even declining rates, reflecting persistent pressure on transportation costs. This divergence in rate expectations highlights the different priorities and strategies between shippers and carriers, which will shape procurement negotiations throughout 2026.
The differing views on market fundamentals will lead to bid season discussions that focus on reconciling these contrasting perspectives. With carriers pricing for improvement and shippers budgeting more conservatively, the negotiation dynamics will be influenced by the divergent rate outlooks. This creates a dynamic where capacity planning and procurement strategy will need to adapt to the changing market conditions.
The volume expectations show more alignment between shippers and carriers, with both groups anticipating demand growth in 2026. However, carrier optimism has moderated somewhat from the previous year, indicating that the market dynamics have become more nuanced. The combination of shared volume forecasts but different rate outlooks creates a complex scenario for capacity planning and procurement strategy over the next 12 months.
The shift in procurement approaches among shippers is also noteworthy. A significant percentage indicated their network strategy depends on market conditions rather than fixed annual plans. This adjustment reflects an industry that has learned from its experiences with rapidly changing market dynamics and wants to maintain flexibility in its contracts. By being more adaptable, shippers can respond quickly to changes in the market without getting locked into agreements that become misaligned.
The technology adoption patterns are evolving as well, with carriers and shippers prioritizing different aspects of digital implementation. Carriers focus on service reliability and freight quality, while shippers prioritize cost reduction through automation and AI-driven solutions. This divergence in priorities highlights the unique challenges and opportunities faced by each group in terms of technology adoption.
The survey reveals that carrier adoption rates have leveled off across major tools, while shipper interest in automation and AI-driven solutions has increased notably. This shift in momentum reflects the growing importance of digital implementation in both groups, as they seek to improve operational efficiency and competitiveness. By investing in technology, shippers and carriers can address their respective challenges and capitalize on new opportunities.
The full survey results provide a detailed breakdown of rate and volume expectations, capacity planning strategies, technology implementation across specific tools and platforms, and how strategic priorities differ across shipper segments and carrier types. This comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights into the evolving freight market dynamics and the strategies that shippers and carriers will employ to navigate these changes.
The strategic priorities for 2026 cluster around operational areas such as warehousing and intermodal, which suggest companies are pursuing network optimization strategies that address both cost pressure and service requirements simultaneously. However, these approaches vary significantly based on company size and market segment, highlighting the need for tailored solutions that account for diverse business needs and circumstances.
The shift in market dynamics and divergent strategies among shippers and carriers will have a significant impact on capacity planning and procurement strategy in 2026.
