Winter Storm Fern knocked out power for millions of people across the US and reignited a familiar political and media fight over what really causes large-scale outages during extreme weather. To separate the rhetoric from the operational reality, Electrek spoke with Leah Qusba, CEO of GoodPower , a research, strategic communications, and campaigning organization focused on advancing the global renewable energy transition. When “millions lose power,” what usually breaks first?
During big winter storms like Fern, is the biggest culprit typically distribution, transmission, or generation? The “culprit” is almost always the distribution network, followed by generation. Transmission is generally the most resilient part of the grid, though it is also the most impactful if it fails.
Distribution networks are the most exposed and least redundant segment of the system. They rely on poles, transformers, and local lines that are directly vulnerable to ice loading, high winds, falling vegetation, and vehicle strikes. In Fern’s case, freezing rain coated distribution lines and nearby vegetation with ice, adding significant weight that snapped cables and pulled trees down into local networks.
When outages affect neighborhoods, it’s usually because distribution systems are damaged or deliberately de-energized for safety reasons. Transmission systems are more hardened and meshed, and large generators are typically designed to ride through cold conditions. Distribution damage, by contrast, requires hands-on reconstruction work – replacing poles, restringing wires, and clearing debris.
Distribution is also the most expensive part of the grid to harden because of its sheer scale. 5 million per mile, compared with about $300,000 per mile for overhead lines. As extreme weather events intensify, the cost of hardening the grid is only likely to rise.
Despite what some biased narratives suggest, wind and solar generation are rarely the initiating cause of large, storm-driven outages. During winter events, wind output is often strong, and solar simply follows daylight availability. The binding constraint is getting electrons through damaged local wires to customers, not a lack of generation on the system.
From a system-cost perspective, investments that harden distribution infrastructure and improve sectionalizing and restoration speed tend to deliver far more reliability value than debates about the generation mix. Based on outage data and grid operator reports, there is no evidence that wind or solar generation was a primary cause of outages during Fern. The overwhelming driver of customer outages appears to have been weather-related damage to the distribution system.
When generation does struggle during these events, it is often because of the strain on transmission infrastructure, which can become overwhelmed by the amount of power being generated and transmitted. This highlights the need for better coordination and communication between grid operators, generators, and transmission companies to ensure a more reliable and efficient energy supply.
The most critical aspect of grid resilience is often overlooked in the debate over renewable energy: distribution infrastructure. Hardening this part of the grid is essential to prevent large-scale outages during extreme weather events. While wind and solar generation are crucial for a low-carbon future, they must be balanced with investments in distribution infrastructure to ensure a reliable energy supply.
