After years of leading the national shift towards electric vehicles, California may be approaching an inflection point. For the first time since the pandemic, EV sales in the state are expected to dip in 2025, even as several other states report a sharp rise in adoption. Data from JATO Dynamics shows that during the first nine months of 2025, before the federal EV tax credit ended, roughly 302,000 electric vehicles were sold in California.
4 percent decrease compared to the same period last year, hinting that the state's EV market could be nearing saturation. Despite this, California remains well ahead of the pack. EVs now account for 21 percent of new vehicle sales in the state, placing it above the District of Columbia (19 percent), Colorado (19 percent), Washington (17 percent), Nevada (16 percent), and Oregon (13 percent).
1 percent increase. On average, EVs make up 13 percent of new car sales in ZEV states. In contrast, non-ZEV states average just 6 percent, contributing to a national average of 8 percent.
EV sales also rose sharply in many non-ZEV states during the same period, with Florida recording an impressive 33 percent jump between January and September 2025, reaching 109,000 units, which now represent 9 percent of new vehicle sales. That jump in Florida is notable not only for its scale, but also because it comes without the backing of ZEV mandates or aggressive state-level incentives. In a politically conservative state where environmental policy isn't front and center, the increase suggests that consumer demand, not legislation, is doing the heavy lifting.
2 percent increase, reaching 32,000. 7 percent to 31,000 EVs sold. The rapid uptake in BEV sales in Michigan is a clear example of why growth in traditionally non-ZEV states presents such a valuable opportunity for domestic brands.
While it is possible for a brand to break into a new market, as Tesla has done on a national level, we expect BEV sales in other states to come from brands with which the population is already familiar. One of the key hurdles for EV adoption in non-ZEV states remains charging infrastructure. In ZEV states, there's approximately one public charging point for every 880 people.
In non-ZEV states, that number jumps significantly to one for every 2,216 people, highlighting a critical gap in support systems for EV owners.
The sudden surge in EV sales in non-ZEV states is a testament to the growing demand for sustainable transportation options. As consumers become more aware of the environmental benefits of electric vehicles, they are driving growth in traditionally conservative states. However, it's essential that these states invest in building out their charging infrastructure to support this trend.
