Norway's Electric Vehicle Market Resilience Despite Incentive Reduction

Despite cutting EV incentives, Norway maintained its high EV market share in January 2026, with only 98 diesel cars sold. This shows the world a path to resilient electrification of the auto industry. Norwegian auto sales numbers are out for the month of January, and after a record December, there was some nervousness about what could happen once EV incentives were reduced.

Norway has had generous incentives for EVs over the years, including tax exemptions, special access, free parking, and the like. These were all meant to work towards Norway's world-leading goal of 100% EV sales by 2025, a number that it has basically met despite many thinking only a few years ago that it would be impossible. Many of Norway's incentives have been pared down over time as EV momentum became inevitable, but the biggest change in a while just went into effect.

Norway said 'mission accomplished' on its EV transition in October and declared that by the end of the year, it would add a cap to tax incentives. This meant that higher-priced EVs would become more expensive, though lower-priced EVs (under 300k NOK) would maintain incentives for the time being. So, there was a rush to buy cars.

Norway saw a huge EV sales record, and was one of the few countries where Tesla sales increased amid a continent-wide decline. But there was a worry that that record in December would just be a fluke, and that the removal of EV incentives could result in a reversion to the mean. Now that data is out, Norway seems to have avoided that fate.

EV market share did drop slightly, but by such a small percentage as to be negligible. 8% of the Norwegian market, and in January 2025, they made up 97%. The actual numbers show that there's nothing to be concerned about here: In January 2026, only 98 diesel cars were sold across all of Norway, alongside 29 hybrids and 7 petrol-only cars.

This represents a decrease in fossil car sales from last January, not an increase. Meanwhile, 2,084 EVs were sold in January – which is also a big drop from December and from last year. 4% in 2026, as EV sales dropped to about a quarter of their previous numbers.

However, this is more a reflection of diesel car unit sales being so small as to be negligible, and EV unit sales being shifted forward into December instead of January. The reason that diesel market share increased is because the overall car market dropped. Norway usually sells 10-15k cars per month, but in December, sold over 35k new cars.

The bump was due to Norwegians who would have bought an EV in January doing it in December instead, in order to take advantage of incentives. So, in fact, fossil car sales didn't increase after incentives were retired – EV sales just 'decreased,' insofar as they were pulled out of January and into December, making diesel cars look like a larger percentage of a smaller number. Overall car sales only numbered 2,218 cars in January, well below the average, and you can see how the 'missing' ~10k cars from January were instead shifted to December, which had a record-breaking month for EV sales.

Despite this anomaly, Norway's commitment to electric vehicles remains strong, with a goal of achieving 100% electrification by 2025. The country's success in maintaining its high EV market share despite the removal of incentives is a testament to the resilience of the Norwegian automotive industry and its dedication to reducing carbon emissions. As an expert in the field, it's clear that Norway's approach to electric vehicle adoption has been a model for other countries to follow, and its continued commitment to this goal will likely have a positive impact on the environment and the economy alike.